What’s Wrong With Roger?!?

So Federer lost to Thomas Berdych 4:6, 7:6, 6:7 in the round of 16 in Miami last night. A shock for most of his fans and the tennis fans in Miami, who were looking forward to a possible final Federer – Nadal. And ‘Fed’ lost to Marcos Baghdatis in the third round of  last weeks Indian Wells tournament already (in straight sets). How can that happen?!?

Is Federer struggling again with his form … and his forehand … and his overhead … and his backhand?

No, He isn’t!

He lost 6:8 in the third set of the tiebreak, had one matchpoint and had 10 break chances during the whole match, compared to only 4 for Berdych and he won as many points in total as the Zcech No. 1, as well. So, it was a really close match that he lost. Unlike the early exits of Djokovic and Murray, Federer was very close to winning, but just came up short a tiny little bit in the end.

On top of that Djokovic and Murray have been the two finalists of last years event, and they will lose a lot of points due to their early departures. Federer reached only the semi-final last year and has only 360 points to defend. The only player left in the draw, who can be dangerous for his No. 1 ranking spot, is Nadal and he is more than 4000 points behind Federer. So, no worries for ‘Fed’ in that department.

And this is one of the two things Roger is really concerned about. He wants to break Pete Sampras’ record of total weeks at No. 1 and total year-end finishes as No. 1.

If you have some money to spend, go ahead and place a bet on him reaching these goals this year. The only problem is that you won’t get much money back, if you are right…

His other big goal for this year and main focus is winning a Grand Slam. And in order to do that he needs to have enough energy a, motivation and focus during the last 3 Grand Slam events of this year. So, he cannot go 100% all year long. A big mistake Nadal has made over the past years. Of course both players have very different attitudes and work ethics. And they have to have (at least Nadal), because god did not give both the same amount of talent. Nadal always has to work hard to win his matches. But Federer can win with less effort most of the times, and that is the reason why he is not injured so often. And it is also the reason why he suffers some surprise early exits in some tournaments that are not so important for him. But it does not happen when he really care, as his Grand Slam record clearly show. Federer always tries to save as much energy as possible and win his matches with ease, because he is always aiming for the title. And that means a lot of matches in a row. And if he is not aiming for the title, but for the big titles (grand Slams) he is trying to save even more energy.

So, there is nothing to worry about for the Federer fans. He thinks French Open already and I think he will have a great chance this year to get the Grand Slam.

And then the Federer fans have reason to worry, because if he can accomplish that, he will also break the other records for the No. 1 ranking, and then he has nothing to play for anymore besides exercise and fun. And I don’t know if he will have enough motivation to travel around the globe to exercise… His wife might ask him to play with his daughters on the court next to the house instead…

H F Hesse

Hesse Tennis Training

Professional Training and Coaching for Top Juniors and Professionals 

Men’s Favorites Drop Out Early In Miami

Like in many other years already, a lot of top players drop out of the men’s draw at an early stage. In other years the strong winds at Key Biscayne had a big influence on many frustrated players unable to control their shots. But this year the surprise upsets were real surprises, since the winds have not been strong at all.

And the player who benefits the most from these early exits is Andy Roddick again, who had a good draw at Indian Wells already, with Tipsarevic, Monfils, Federer and Murray going out of the tournament before meeting Roddick.

Now he avoids potential match-ups with Blake, Djokovic, Robredo, Querrey and Ljubicic before he would reach the semi-final with Nadal or Tsonga. On the top half of the draw it is Soderling and Federer who still have a tough draw, but will not have to face Andy Murray anymore.

Nadal has probably the toughest draw, with Nalbandian in the 3^{rd round} (he won in 3 sets last night) and many other top players to come before he can reach a potential semi-final against Roddick. Even though difficult opponents like Isner and Karlovic fell to Ferrer and Ferrero. But Ferrer in the next round and Ferrero or tsonga in the quarters will also give him a hard time for sure.

With Federer waiting for Berdych and Cilic or Verdasco, before he will meet probably Soderling in the Semis, who will have to battle Gonzales, Youzhny and wawrinka, it looks like the safest pick for the semi final is Andy Roddick.

I think it will come down to Tsonga and Roddick in the bottom half and Roger and Soderling in the top half. In the final we will see Roger and Tsonga, for sure an exciting ending of the hard court season, before the guys will grind it out on clay. If Fed wins this one, he will secure his No. 1 spot for a long time and go with good hopes into the clay court season aiming for a grand slam this year.

I think he can do it and it will all depend on Nadal and performance on clay this year.

H F  Hesse

Professional Tennis Training and Coaching for Top Juniors and Pros

Miami ATP Masters 1000 preview

This years Miami Masters 1000 event offers a very interesting draw with some exciting potential match-ups throughout the whole tournament.

First of all there is Roger Federer, who might run into Berdych first and then into rising star Marin Cilic. Cilic, coached by former Becker coach Bob Brett, showed his potential at the Australian Open already and might by inspired by fellow countryman, Ivan Ljubicic, who won last weeks event in Indian Wells. This is for or sure an interesting match-up and a real test for Cilic to check out his future potential. If he can beat Roger here, he will certainly do the next step in his career.

In the semi-final, Roger could face (if he beats Cilic…) either Murray or Soderling, which will be either this years Australian Open final rematch or last years French Open final rematch. Soderling also collected his first win against Federer in their last match, even though it was just during a show tournament prior to the Australian Open. But Soderling stepped up his game since last years ATP-Finals in London. These would be for sure two great semi-final match-ups. And the quarterfinal between Soderling and Murray will also be very interesting since it is a rematch of last weeks Indian Wells Quarterfinal, which Murray lost in straight sets, 1:6, 6:7. The last time Murray has beaten Soderling was in 2006 and if Murray wants to come closer to Rogers No. one spot, he needs to show up in the masters 1000 events.

Even though Roger I think that Roger does not care much about any other event besides the Grand Slams, I believe that his talent and potential is so big, that he will even win these matches in second gear and will reach the final, where he will probably meet Novak Djokovic. The Djoker is his biggest rival for the No. 1 spot, and he will see his opportunities this year, to make his dream reality. So this final will be an indication if he can contest the top ranking spot this year. By reaching the final Roger might be satisfied already though, so, I see it an open match. But with his talent, Roger will always be a good pick, of course.

In the bottom half are also some very interesting match-ups. With the return of David Nalbandian from his hip injury, there is a dangerous unseeded floater in the draw. And he will run into Rafael Nadal in the 3^rd round, a player Nalbandian has not only beaten, but crushed, a few times already. Nalbandian, who I see as the second most talented player on the ATP-Tour, behind Roger, is able to take Nadals high top-spin shot on the rise without any problems. And this takes all the danger away from Nadals game, which is anyways not nearly as good as last year. So, I see a win for Nalbandian, who should come back to his old form in this tournament, and who will be motivated to get back into the top 10. If he really beats Nadal, he will have enough confidence and will also beat potential opponents, Karlovic and Isner. Djokovic might be to tough for him in the semi-finals but, you never know with David.

But there are two more very exciting match-ups in the bottom half of the draw. In the round of 16 we might see a rematch of the Indian Wells final, between Roddick and Ljubicic. Roddick will be eager to make up for his lost final, but I think Ljubicic will pull it off again, which might be the start for Roddicks departure from the top 10…

Against Djokovic I see his energy fading and his great run in the last two weeks come to an end. Even though he has beaten the Djoker last week, I think that Novak will be too competitive to let this happen again.

If I am right, we won’t see many changes in the top-10 rankings after this event, since Murray beat Djokovic in the finals last year and Nadal lost in the quarters. But if the draw developes like I predicted, this might be a hint of what is to come in this years season. So far the only change would be Nadal regaining the No. 3 spot from Murray again, even if he loses in the 3^rd round to Nalbandian. With Davydenko and Del Potro out due to injuries and a fortunate draw in Indian Wells, Nadal will be able to stay in the top 4 going into the clay court season. Before the start of this year, I was not sure at all, if he will be still ahead of Davydenko and Del Potro at the start of the French Open. Since both players had not nearly as  many points to defend, as Nadal. But now Rafa can be a bit more relaxed and look forward to stand on his favorite surface again, soon. But stiil I see problems for Nadal this year and Del Potro, Davydenko, Cilic, Soderling and hopefully Nalbandian on the rise. Tough opponents to fight off for Nadal.

Let’ see if I am right…

H F  Hesse

Prtofessional Tennis Training

Roddick back on track?

21.03.2010

Before the beginning of the 2010 season I was in doubt that Andy Roddick can keep his top 10 ranking until the end of the year. Now he is in the final of the first Masters 1000 Tournament of the year, his 8^th career Masters series final. And on top of that he plays Ivan Ljubicic, ranked outside the top 20 in the world in front of his home crowd in the USA. I see him as a 80% – 20 % winner in this match up and improve his record against Ljubicic to 8 – 3.

I am sure that the Indian Wells title will boost Roddicks confidence and especially his motivation for the rest of the year so much, that I have to take back my prediction that he will drop out of the top 10 by the end of the year. With this boost he might be able to keep up the faith to win another Grand Slam tournament, the one thing that keeps him going like he says. I think that he will never come as close again as in last years Wimbledon Final where he almost beat Roger Federer. I think he is far away from winning another Grand Slam, even with a newly found confidence and high motivation.

He might do well in Miami too, but the clay court season is coming soon and his confidence will go down the drain again. He will have a lot of pressure defending his points in Wimbledon and I don’t see him in the semi-final this year. The top 4, and even Del Potro and Davydenko are just too strong for him and he will face one of these players in the quarter-finals already.

But with a win in Indian Wells he might be able to hold off players like Tsonga, Soderling, Cilic, Verdasco, Monfils and Gonzales for bit longer. Without his fortunate draw at Indian Wells I am sure he would have not been able to go this far in a Masters 1000 event.

With Del Potro and Davydenko injured, Roger probably only thinking about a possible Grand Slam, Nadal out of form, Djokovic not able to control his emotions in a match-up of Serbia against Croatia and Murray losing surprisingly to Soderling, he could have not asked for more circumstances.

But what will the top 6 do in Miami. Even Roger will try to do a little better, and we will see how much Roddick has left in the tank after 10 days in the desert of California.

If he really wins the final tonight he will pass Soderling, but I doubt that he will be still ahead of him in the rankings after Miami. He has a Quarterfinal to defend, while Robin Soderling lost in the 2^nd round last year.

So, is Roddick back on track? I don’t see it. He might get a boost for a little while, but in April we will see different players with confidence and faith. A lot of them will carry a Spanish passport by the way…

H F  Hesse