Today I want to take a look at the draw for the 2nd ATP 1000 clay-court tournament of the season.
The first Masters series event was won by Rafa Nadal, but 5 of the top 10 players were not in the draw because of different reasons. Federer felt that the tournament comes to early for him in his preparation for the French and some other big names were injured (Del Potro, Davydenko, Soderling) or did not feel like playing on clay at all (Roddick).
But now at least Federer is ready to make his start on clay for the 2010 season and if both win, he will meet Nadal in the semis’ already.
But besides this interesting semi-final match up, there are some other very exciting possibilities in the draw. First of all Federer might face Baghdatis (if Marcos beats Gulbis for a 5th time in a row…) in his opener and he can take revenge for his loss in Indian Wells. In the Quarters Roger might face Cilic, who was not as convincing on clay yet, as at the Australian Open in the beginning of the year. But it will be a good indication for Cilic’s potential to reach the top 5 some day, and a tough test for Federer. But Cilic will also have to beat a tough clay-court player like Almagro to get to the quarters.
Nadals section of the draw is also very interesting, since his opener will be against Kohlschreiber, then maybe Montanes and in the quarters either red hot Berdych, who like to play against Nadal, especially in his current form. Or a rematch of last years’ French Open disaster, with Robin Soderling, who just proved that his clay-court abilities were no fluke, when he reached the final in Barcelona. So, a tough draw section for Nadal, and he will be happy that he made a wise decision and did not play in Barcelona. He will be rested for these matches and he needs to, if he wants to be still fresh, when he plays Federer in the semi-final.
The bottom half of the draw might see a quarterfinal between Novak Djokovic, who is seeded No. 2 and Barcelona winner Fernando Verdasco. But Verdasco played the final in Monte Carlo already and I don’t think his legs are still fresh enough to make another splash in Rome, even though he has a pretty good draw, with only Youzhny in his way. But so does Novak and I see him winning against Verdasco this time.
In the other section there will be a rematch between De Bakker and Tsonga in the second round and De Bakker has to prove if his great performance in Barcelona was not just a one-hit-wonder. Tsonga will be eager to take revenge and it will be an exciting match for sure. Murray runs into Ferrer again and has to prove that he is one of the contenders for the French Open. I doubt it and see Ferrer winning against him in the round of 16. Even though he also played 2 events already, I still see him with enough left in the tank to reach the semi-final, where he will face Djokovic.
So, here is my prediction:
It’s Nadal over Federer and Ferrer over Djokovic. So, another Spanish winner in the 3 big clay-court event of the year. Nadal will take the title, because the other Spanish players just have too much respect for Nadal to beat him in a final.
This win will give Nadal even more confidence and make him the clear favorite for the French Open, even if Federer should win in Madrid again like last year.
Let’s see if I am right… ;)
H F Hesse
Hesse Tennis Training
Professional Training and Coaching for Top Juniors and Professionals
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