Monte Carlo Preview

The clay court season kicks off in Monte Carlo this week and will give a first indication who will be among the contenders for the French Open title this year.

Even though 5 of the top 10 players (Federer needs more rest, Davydenko out with broken wrist, Del Potro also wrist injury and Roddick and Soderling because of ‘ clay allergy…’) are not in the field we will see exciting ATP clay-court tennis.

Djokovic seeded No. 1 and Nadal at 2 are the defending finalists, with Nadal trying to get his 6^th consecutive title in Monaco. Murray and Cilic are the othe 2 players who are in the top 4 seedings and should go to the semis.

So, with Federer, Del Potro, Davydenko and Soderling there are 4 players not in the draw who are capable of giving Nadal a hard time on clay. A great opportunity for him to get a good start into his clay-court season and finally winning an ATP-title again after nearly one year of empty hands.

But even with these players out of the draw, there is plenty of competition for Rafa. On his way to a potential final he has to eliminate a few Spanish clay court specialist and maybe Andy Murray in the semi-final. Ferreo, Ferrer, Almagro And Monaco are all in his section of the draw. If he gets through these players he will gain a lot of confidence, but also lose a lot of energy, before he probably faces Verdasco or Djokovic in the final.

In the top half of the draw Djokovic has his hands full as well and will have to battle his way through Wawrinka, Nalbandian or Robredo, before he meets Verdasco, Cilic or maybe red hot Berdych in the semi-final.

If Verdasco is completely recovered from his back injury, I see him as the favorite to reach the semis, and if he gets there he will go through to the final as well.

But it will be very interesting how Berdych will handle he recent success in Miami, where he beat Federer and only lost in the final to Roddick. Was it just another flash of his great talent or was it a final break-through. We will know after this tournament.

Here is my prediction:

Nadal wins in the semis against Ferrer and Djokovic loses against Verdasco. In the final Nadal is too strong for Verdasco again and Nadal will get a record 6^th consecutive title at Monte Carlo.

It will give him a lot of confidence back, but it won’t be an indication that he will win the French as well. I still see Federer winning in Roland Garros and getting his first Grand Slam this year. Rafa’s career is slowly going down due to his physical way of playning, his injuries and his tournament planning, but for sure this title will give him a push for the next tournaments.

Let’s see if I am right...

H F  Hesse

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